Red Sox 2026 Preview

This year contains far less anger! And so many exclamation points! Are some of them sarcastic? Potentially!

Opening day arrives! And Red Sox fans actually have a season to look forward to! The TL;DR this season: the Sox made moves this off-season to address their key needs (a right handed bat and rotation depth), but did so in ways that traded prospects to save money. This is a troubling trend. But the Sox did add significant payroll, they are 7th in baseball, and that should make them a better team. They have a number of really interesting young hitters and pitchers, and could, if everything goes their way, win 90+ games. More realistic, given how deep the AL East is this year, is that they win 87 games and make the playoffs.

Good reader, if you are reading this, then you and I have likely discussed Red Sox baseball at some point over the past 5 years. And if we have discussed Red Sox baseball over the past five years, then you know my attitude towards this team–and specifically its ownership–has been rather negative. From peaks of apathy to valleys of loathing. But not this year. After what was clearly the most motivated off-season since the departure unforgivable trade of Mr. Betts, the Red Sox are positioned to compete for a divisional title. Fangraphs’ ZIPS system projects the Sox for 85 wins, with a 4.6% chance of winning the World Series. Other systems, a bit more skeptical of their young hitters, have the Sox as low as 83 wins. For comparison, the Yankees are projected for 87 wins, with a 6.4% chance of winning the World Series. The Dodgers are projected for 99 wins with a 26.5% chance of winning the World Series. So, we are not a favorite to win our division, let alone the World Series. But we are “good.” And I think, as I will explain below, that’s all we (that still questionable ownership group) wanted to be. Ownership isn’t trying to be the Dodgers, and this off-season was not “World Series or Bust.” But the Sox have the 7th highest payroll in baseball this year, and that is higher than they have had in quite awhile. It seems like this team wants to win.

The Dodgers do everything within their (incredible) financial power to win. Couple that with an incredibly smart front office, and you get the juggernaut that has won the past 2 World Series and is the heavy favorite to win a third. I remember an analyst–I think Sam Miller–talking about an important and often overlooked element of the Dodgers spending and success: they don’t trade prospects for average players. Every team needs average players to fill out their roster. Many teams will trade prospects to acquire them. The Dodgers, generally, do not. They simply buy them. Sure, they buy all the really expensive players. But then they go out and buy all the average players, to the point that the average players they develop in their minor league system just sit in AAA waiting to play. Sometimes, they trade away an average player that they don’t even need–like, say, Dustin May–to an (at least temporarily) idiotic team like the Red Sox for a near-top 100 prospect. Ah, there it is. The old suspicion and loathing.

Let me stay on track here. My point is that the Dodgers use their spending power to make the deepest 40 man roster possible. Hence why they are projected to win nearly 100 games this year, and will likely be projected to win as many games for a few years to come.

The Red Sox do not do this. They spend prospects to acquire above good (and average) players that fit their roster holes. And they throw prospects into deals to entice teams to pay some of money left on those veteran contracts. I think that, down the line, this will hurt them. But on March 26th of 2026, we should all be pretty optimistic about the team they have assembled.

Offseason Acquisitions

At the beginning of the offseason, I thought the Sox had three primary needs. In order of importance:

• A right-handed middle of the order bat
• A number 2 starting pitcher
• A second or third baseman (I never believed they would bring Bregman back)

Additionally, they needed to trade either Duran or Yoshida. The former would net you a far greater return. The latter would likely be nothing more than a salary dump. I’ll get to this later.

So, three needs. And, lo, good reader, look at the top of the free agent market and see:

• Pete Alonso, 31 year old right handed monster with a career 130 wRC+
• Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez, two starters who have averaged well over 4 WAR per season over the past four years
• Bo Bichette, a mere 28 year old former shortstop with a career 122 wRC+ (also, right-handed)

“Yes!” you say! Our needs and the market are in near perfect alignment! Surely a team that is 60 million under the luxury tax will invest in one of these wonderful assets.

LOL. No.

To be frank, I wasn’t excited about either of the free agent pitching options, and I think the Sox’s trade acquisitions of Gray and Suarez make more sense than investing in Cease or Valdez. But either Alonso or Bichette would have been tremendous additions to this team (Alonso signed a risky-but-fair 5/155 deal with division rival Baltimore, Bichette an incredibly team friendly 3/126 deal with the Mets). If you were “World Series or Bust” you would have signed one of them. But that’s not the front office’s approach. The approach appears to be good, and to trade potential future value for lower present salaries.

The Red Sox did address all of their team needs. First, the Sox traded for Wilson Contreras, sending Hunter Dobbins (a decent back end starter) and two prospects to the Cardinals. Interesting, here, is that the prospects were likely included to persuade the Cardinals to eat 8 million of Contreras’ 3/82.5 million dollar contract. The third year of that contract is non-guaranteed, meaning the Sox essentially traded for 2 years of Contreras. He has been a consistent right-handed bat (122 wRC+) that generally hits 20+ home runs a year. That’s about ½ as many home runs as Alonso. But–you see–he costs ½ as much and his contract is ½ as long!

Contreras will start the year at first base. His defense will be bad. But his long-term position with this team will likely be DH, if/after Tristan Casas returns (which legitimately might not be until next year). He is a good player, whose cost was reduced by trading away prospects. This will be a repeating theme.

The Red Sox probably didn’t acquire a true #2 starter. But they definitely acquired two number 3 starters: Sonny Gray and Ranger (pronounced Rain-air) Suarez. The details of the Sonny Gray trade might, based on the previous paragraphs, sound familiar. A pattern forms. The Sox sent Richard Fitts (a semi-decent back end starter) and prospect Brandon Clarke (a stuff-monster-power-arm ranked #5 in our system) for Gray and 20 million dollars in salary relief. This is a more egregious trade than the Contreras trade, in that Clarke–while wild–was an intriguing prospect. Gray is 36, is owed 31 million in 2026 and 30 million in 2027. He has a 10 million dollar team option for next year, meaning the Red Sox will pay 10 million to *not* pay him 30 million in 2027. And it was reported at the time of the trade that the Sox included Clarke to get the Cardinals to pay 20 million cash to cover the opt out and some of Gray’s 2026 salary. Essentially, the Red Sox traded a good prospect to get one year of a good pitcher at a lowered cost. Which, in my opinion, isn’t great for the long-term future of the team. This is the antithesis of what the Dodgers do. But it is good for 2026! Gray might be a number two starter–he’s averaged 4+ WAR for the past three seasons after developing a cutter. He was a 2 WAR pitcher for the three years before that. I think, if he can stay healthy, he can be a 3+ WAR pitcher for the Sox.

Their other major offseason pitching acquisition, Suarez, came by a more traditional route. We handed him a very large sack of money: 5 years and 130 million dollars. While that is a very large sack of money, it is significantly smaller than what you would project for a player of his recent productivity. Since becoming a full-time player in 2021, Suarez has totaled 15.1 WAR, including a career high of 4 WAR in 2025. These days, on the free agent market, you expect a win to cost about 12 million dollars, lowered for length of the contract. So, basically, you’d expect Suarez to make about 36 million a year. We payed 26 million a year. Bargain shopping!

Why did we get a bargain? Well, Suarez has dealt with nagging injuries, but never anything significant to the elbow or shoulder. Still, he has never pitched more than 157 innings in a season. More significant is that he doesn’t look like a contemporary pitcher–his fastball barely hits 90mph and he lives by mixing up a wide variety of good to okay breaking pitches (most notably his curve, with a sinker, slider, and change). He’s 29 and already struggles to throw 90mph. That suggests he might not age tremendously well. But that was a risk the Sox were willing to take.

Do you remember Rick Porcello? In his five years in Detroit before coming to Boston, Porcello totaled 13.2 WAR. Which would suggest that Suarez is about 13% better than Rick Porcello. This feels accurate to me. I don’t think Suarez is going to bullshit his way to a Cy Young, but I do think he can be a very effective innings eater for at least a few years. And, by comparison, the guys we didn’t sign (Dylan Cease got 7/210, Framber Valdez 3/115) got much higher AAVs and also come with question marks.

A Bit of a Rant Mostly about Trading Prospects and Not Being the Dodgers

Are you still with me good reader? Well, then, lets talk about the Red Sox’s most interesting offseason acquisition, third baseman Caleb Durbin. Acquired from the Brewers for Kyle Harrison* (just writing his name gets the old anger-juices flowing), Durbin finished 4th in the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year voting. But he’s not that exciting. As a minor leaguer, Durbin showed excellent pitch recognition and plate discipline, walking far more than he struck out. In his 2025 rookie season, he walked in 5.9% of his plate appearances and struck out only 9.9% of the time. He had little power (25 doubles and 11 home runs) and decent to good speed (18 steals against 6 caught stealing). He was a plus defender at the position, which seems to be something the Sox are prioritizing this year. The downside? He was a 25 year old rookie last year, long-baked in the Milwaukee farm, and thus is unlikely to see a lot of growth. I think his plate discipline will continue to improve. But even with the boost from the Green Monster, I doubt his power will improve too much–he had an exit velocity of just 85.2 last year, and only a 4% barrel rate. For non-nerds, those numbers are dreadfully low; Wilyer Aberu had a 90.8 ev and 12.3% barrel rate, Roman Anthony a 94.5 and a 15.5%. So the underlying Statcast numbers tell us that Durbin isn’t going to be much of a hitter. But the departed Alex Bregman has had a lucrative career off a 88.9ev and a mere 6.1% barrel rate, so perhaps we shouldn’t overrate those numbers. Like the man he replaces, Durbin will make a bunch of contact, hopefully grind a lot of walks, occasionally steal a base, and play solid to great defense. He is a good player!

In return for Durbin, we gave away David Hamilton (RIP my speedy friend), Kyle Harrison* (Nick it is coming soon I promise), and never-prospect Shane Drohan. This *wasn’t* a cost cutting move like the other trades I discuss above. Rather, this was the cost of acquiring a good, young cost-controlled player. It was a good trade.

But, I need to talk about the trade of Kyle Harrison. Which means we have to talk about the trade of Rafael Devers. And the trade for Dustin May. Like the Always Sunny meme, I need several whiteboards to work through this one.

Kyle Harrison was perhaps the weirdest inclusion in last year’s Dever’s trade. That trade was incredible for the Red Sox. In its aftermath, I think we’ve all come to realize that Devers was a bit more problematic than perhaps we were aware, and that his 335 million contract is highly unlikely to end well. Notably, Jeff Passan reported that the Giants were the only team willing to take on the entirety of the contract. In return, they offered us only one asset of value: James Tibbs III, currently the number 9 prospect in the Dodgers system. Notice I did not say Boston system. Deep breaths. Deep breaths.

One of the other players included in the Devers system was a salary dump by the Giants: they simply didn’t want to pay Jordan Hicks the 3 years and 33 million he had left on his deal. The Sox managed to trade Hicks to the White Sox this offseason because they, too, did not want to pay Hicks the 2 years and 22 million still left on his deal. The Red Sox included a decent pitching prospect, David Sandlin, in that deal. So there’s another prospect essentially sold for cash. Stay on track Marc. Stay on track. It is a difficult journey, but you can land this angry plane.

The other two players in the Devers trade were non-prospect Jose Bello (a now 20 year old with command issues) and the aforementioned Kyle Harrison. Harrison was a roster-filling number 5 starter with the Giants. When he arrived in Boston in mid-June, we were all watching Walker Buehler set himself on fire every 5th day, to the tune of a 5.66 FIP and negative .3 WAR. During his time with the Giants, Harrison had a 4.56 FIP in 182 innings. He was worth 1.1 WAR. Did the Red Sox designate Buehler and put Harrison in the rotation? No. Okay, but did they use Harrison as a long-reliever? Also no. They immediately sent him to AAA. And he stayed there for almost the entirety of last year.

Even worse, the most frustrating part of all, the 2026 trade deadline. The Sox finally recognize that they need to replace Buehler in the rotation. Ah, yes. Do they call up Harrison, who was pitching relatively well in Worcester (50ks in 50 innings). No. Of course not. Instead, they trade the aforementioned James Tibbs III, the only real asset they received in the Devers trade, a borderline top 100 prospect at the time, for Dustin May.

Allow me a minute to ruminate on the career of Dustin May, so you have full understanding of my anger. Dustin May was an uber prospect in the Dodgers system. A flamethrowing right-handed power pitcher with great control, May dominated in the minors and pitched 34 pretty incredible innings after a late 2019 season call up. But let us look at his major league innings after that season:
2020: 56
2021: 23
2022: 30
2023: 48
2024: 0

Yes. That is zero in 2024. To be fair, at the time of the trade, he had thrown 107 innings. But they were bad innings. In fact, they were worse innings than Kyle Harrison had thrown before being parked in Worcester. May was a free agent at the end of the season, so we traded Tibbs- a fairly valuable prospect–to rent a bad pitcher with a long injury history. May got hurt after 5 starts and 28 innings.

But fear not, good reader, Kyle’s story is not done! This spring he arrived at camp at behold, he has learned a new pitch–the “kick” change. While he gave up a few home runs, he suddenly started striking out a lot of batters. Excellent–we have lucked our way into what seems like a quality starter. I’m not mad that the Red Sox traded Harrison for Durbin fills a real need, and I don’t honestly think Harrison will suddenly be better than Sonny Gray. But I struggle sometimes to understand the capriciousness with which the Sox deal prospects.

Another example, this offseason we traded outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia (affectionately nicknamed “the password”) for Pirates pitcher Jose Oviedo. I struggle to find the appeal of Oviedo–his career FIP is worse than Harrison’s. He missed all of 2024 with an injury and struggled through his 40 innings in 2025. His underlying Stuff+ numbers aren’t particularly exciting. Why give up your only legitimate outfield prospect above AA, your one depth piece, for a mediocre back end starter?

There are times to trade prospects. I cannot imagine anyone would complain about the Crochet trade. But the capriciousness with which the Sox deal interesting prospects for salary relief is concerning.

But What About the Rest of the Team?

This team has an incredible amount of young talent:

• Roman Anthony (OF): who has potential to be a franchise defining superstar. He already displays incredible plate discipline. The question is to what extent his power will improve. But he and Crochet form the backbone of this team. At worst, Anthony is Kyle Tucker. At best, Mookie Betts. His flaw is his launch angle, which was only 6.9%. That is bad. Compare to Alex Bregman, who I discuss further below. Despite not hitting the ball hard, Bregman has a near perfect 17.8 career launch angle. So, when he does hit the ball well, it is on a near perfect trajectory to get over the fence (or hit the Monster!). 6.9% means Anthony is hitting a lot of very hard baseballs that will land in front of an outfielder. Can he improve his angle? That is generally difficult to do. But he is young and a clear transcendent talent, so we’ll see.
• Wilyer Abreu (OF): an offensive talent and a Gold Glove fielder. Abreu has shown a fairly drastic platoon splits. Last year he sported a 115 wRC+ against righties and an 85 wRC+ against lefties. But he also demonstrated improved power last year while dealing with injuries. I am hoping he breaks out in 2026. If he does, then the Red Sox will have to make a large financial investment if they hope to retain him beyond 2029.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is already one of the best defenders in baseball. Last here he showed signs of improved power and plate discipline. He is one of the funnest players on the team, and given his age and talent, could continue to grow into one of the best players on the team. He came up just shy of 4 WAR last season, and I think, with a bit more batted ball luck (only a .289 BABIP last year for a very fast player), he could be an All-Star this season
• Marcelo Mayer (2B): A difficult prospect to project forward. Mayer had a rocky path through the minor leagues–with a balance of excellence and struggle. His rookie season reflected this–he struck out an untenable 30% of the time. But when he did hit the ball, good things generally happened: a 90 exit velocity, 9% barrel rate, and .173 ISO. Not bad for an infielder. Like Anthony, Mayer had only a 6.7 percent launch angle in a small 90 MLB event sample; however, he had a much more healthy 12.3% angle in a 134 AAA events. It looks like Mayer will be the strong side of a second base platoon to start the season. Fangraphs projects Mayer to be a mediocre 1 WAR player, essentially roster filler. But this is a #4 overall pick with clear talent–if he can cut his strike out rate down to 25% (it was 19% in spring training), then I think he can be a 4 WAR player. That would push the Sox from 83-85 wins to 86-89. The time for hope is now!
• Kristian Campbell (OF): A second baseman no longer, Campbell will start this season in AAA. Last year, Campbell had an incredible start to the season, with 150 wRC+ in March and April. But then teams learned he couldn’t read outside breaking balls and his season disintegrated. Not only could he not reach outside pitches, but also he lost his pull power on inside pitches. After a mid-June demotion, he spent the season in AAA. He’s back there to start this year, although there is optimism that the uber prospect will continue to develop and give them needed OF depth after Garcia’s trade. We’ll see. The Sox gave Campbell an 8 year, 60 million dollar contract after last season’s hot start–and at the time that deal looked like a bargain. Again, we’ll see.

The team also has strong veteran depth:

• Trevor Story’s 2025 felt miraculous, given his recent injury history. A healthy 32 year old Story played 157 games, tying a career high he set at age 25. He played solid defense at short and was a league average hitter. He managed to steal 31 bases. Altogether, a very respectable 3 WAR season. The obvious question is whether Story will be able to stay health in 2026. Hence the acquisition of…
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa, back up shortstop extraordinaire. He can’t hit, but he is still a plus defender. Smart move ensuring that we have some insurance in case Story’s 2026 looks like his 2022, 2023, or 2024. Thi is a Dodgers kind of move–paying for a quality back-up role player. That signals they are trying to win this season.
• Jarren Duran’s 2024 season was one of the few bright spots of recent Red Sox history. He took a pretty big step back last season, and found himself in constant trade rumors this offseason. Duran’s situation is complicated: he broke out later than prospects usually do and is already 29. Teams might look at his 2025 and wonder if it is a sign of early decline! Also, he is typically a mediocre fielder, even if he was quite good in that stellar 2024 campaign. He is clearly not as good a player as Anthony or Abreu, and so it is unlikely that he is anything more than a DH for the Sox the next few years. Rumors were we tried to move him for elite pitcher Cole Ragans or underrated second baseman Ketel Marte. Either move would have been incredible for the Sox. But there’s nothing wrong with keeping Duran, who doesn’t reach free agency until after 2028. Except that means you need to figure out what to do with….
• Masataka Yoshida. I liked the gamble on Yoshida, an elite contact and plate discipline hitter. But I didn’t–nor did the Red Sox–expect there would be this little power. Or that the defense would be unfunctionally atrocious. Or that he would be one of the slowest baserunners in all of baseball. His 2025 season was significantly hampered by injury. But even when healthy in 2024 and 2025, he wasn’t that good (his wRC+ was 113.5). MLB benches are small–4 players max, and one of those has to be a back up catcher. Yoshida’s only value is as a DH. If you use him as a pinch hitter, then you need to burn another player as a defensive replacement. He’ll play on the days that any OF needs a day off and Duran plays in the field. But that’s not a lot of value, and one could argue you’d be better served having a better right-handed hitting option (RIP Rob Refsnyder who left for Seattle this offseason). The Sox tried, and failed, to move either Duran or Yoshida this offseason, and failed. That leaves their opening day bench in tough shape. I would not be surprised to see either traded during this season.

Hey, what about the rest of the starting rotation?

Thoughts:

• Garrett Crochet is the best pitcher in baseball not named Skubal. The entirety of our postseason hopes rest on the health of his arm.
• Last year I wrote of Brayan Bello: “Bello has one of the worst fastballs in baseball. See–that’s bad. He got by last year living off his breaking stuff, which doesn’t grade out as amazing but is deceptive enough to get by. But not having a fastball is bad.” This is all still true–except that Bello pretty much stopped throwing his fastball (only 9.4% of the time). He, like our new acquisition Suarez, lives off a collection of breaking balls. And, like our other acquisition, Gray, Bello is throwing a new cutter this year in spring training. Bello is highly unlikely to repeat his 166 inning, 3.35 ERA 2025 season (given that his expected ERA last season was 4.48). But he can probably be a useful number 4 starter.

Hey, what about the bullpen?

• Our domestic abuser-closer pitched well last year, and he will probably pitch well again in 2026.
• Garrett Whitlock is one of the better set up men in baseball

Nobody else in this bullpen is special. Greg Weissert is probably the number three guy. But, the bullpen will get better later in the season when Patrick Sandoval, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford all come back from injury.

Hey, are there any prospects we should be paying attention to?

Two, and both debuted late last season: Connelly Early and Payton Tolle. Both have names you would expect to find on the register of a prohibition speakeasy. Tolle has the facial fair you’d expect to find there too. Both, while different in their approach, are excellent pitching prospects. We haven’t had pitching prospects this good since Lester and Buchholz. Early projects to be like Sonny Gray–a control pitcher who misses enough bats to be a mid to top of the rotation starter. Tolle has enough gas to send a rocket to Mars, but there are questions about how consistently he’ll be able to throw strikes. But both should be awesome to watch. And I expect that they are really your number 6 and 7 starters. How much they play in 2026 probably has a lot to do with the health of the rotation and the recovery of Sandoval, Houck, and Crawford. [UPDATE: On Opening Day, the Sox announced Early will start the season in the rotation]

Beyond those two, I’m not sure there’s any high impact prospect that will debut in 2026. But a few potential names:

• Franklin Arias isn’t much of a hitter. Last year he had just a 109 wRC+ in (mostly) A+ baseball. But he is Fangraphs #14 prospect entering 2026. Because he is a plus, plus defender and most certainly our SS of the future. He likely needs to play all of next season at AA and AAA, but I do think it is possible, if he plays well early and Story goes down, that they give him a chance.
• Mikey Romero is a low key prospect (#11 in the Sox system entering 2026) who might fill a need. With Romy Gonzalez, a right-handed moderate power bat, going down for the season, the Sox might give Romero a shot. Last year, Romero had a 104 wRC+ across AA and AAA. Not the best–but he had plus power (.207 ISO) and struggled with strikeouts. He added a lot of muscle in the offseason, and that might lead to even more power. His future is likely tied to improving his contact rate. If he can cut the strikeouts a bit, which he was working on in spring training, then he might offer some IF platoon depth.
• Jake Bennett. In one of the weirder offseason trades, the Red Sox sent 22 year old prospect Luis Perales to the Washington Nationals for the 25 year old Bennett. Perales demonstrated exceptional control in the minors, but had very limited velocity. Bennett is pretty much the opposite: he has plus stuff, but control appears to be a big problem. I think he is probably MLB-ready bullpen depth with minor league options remaining. Perales wasn’t ready to contribute to an MLB roster in 2026 (update: he did make the White Sox Opening Day roster, but this begs the question of whether the White Sox are an actual MLB Roster). Bennett might be more ready, especially as a one-inning relief flamethrower. Why sign a free agent when you can trade a prospect? The new normal.

Most of the Sox’s other impact prospects are at low levels of the minors, including Juan Valera, Justin Gonzalez, Dorian Soto, and Marcus Phillips. This preview is already long enough. And, given how often this team trades prospects, they might not even be in the organization by the time you read this.

Final Thought

I think this team is better than its 83 to 85 win projections (depending on your system of choice), because there is a lot of young talent (Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Durbin, Rafaela) that seems likely to improve. I think they’ll win 87+. The division is incredibly deep, so while there hasn’t been a division winner with less than 90 wins in over a decade, this might be that year. Regardless of whether they win the division this year, there’s real reason to be excited about Red Sox baseball in 2026.